Long-separated research has been conducted on two highly correlated tracks: traffic and incidents. Traffic track witnesses complicating deep learning models, e.g., to push the prediction a few percent more accurate, and the incident track only studies the incidents alone, e.g., to infer the incident risk. We, for the first time, spatiotemporally aligned the two tracks in a large-scale region (16,972 traffic nodes) from year 2022 to 2024: our TraffiDent dataset includes traffic, i.e., time-series indexes on traffic flow, lane occupancy, and average vehicle speed, and incident, whose records are spatiotemporally aligned with traffic data, with seven different incident classes. Additionally, each node includes detailed physical and policylevel meta-attributes of lanes. Previous datasets typically contain only traffic or incident data in isolation, limiting research to general forecasting tasks.

Long-separated research has been conducted on two highly correlated tracks: traffic and incidents. Traffic track witnesses complicating deep learning models, e.g., to push the prediction a few percent more accurate, and the incident track only studies the incidents alone, e.g., to infer the incident risk. We, for the first time, spatiotemporally aligned the two tracks in a large-scale region (16,972 traffic nodes) from year 2022 to 2024: our TraffiDent dataset includes traffic, i.e., time-series indexes on traffic flow, lane occupancy, and average vehicle speed, and incident, whose records are spatiotemporally aligned with traffic data, with seven different incident classes. Additionally, each node includes detailed physical and policy-level meta-attributes of lanes. Previous datasets typically contain only traffic or incident data in isolation, limiting research to general forecasting tasks.

Despite recent progress in identifying latent causal structures using causal representation learning (CRL), what makes learned representations useful for causal downstream tasks and how to evaluate them are still not well understood. In this paper, we reinterpret CRL using a measurement model framework, where the learned representations are viewed as proxy measurements of the latent causal variables. Our approach clarifies the conditions under which learned representations support downstream causal reasoning and provides a principled basis for quantitatively assessing the quality of representations using a new Test-based Measurement EXclusivity (T-MEX) score. We validate T-MEX across diverse causal inference scenarios, including numerical simulations and real-world ecological video analysis, demonstrating that the proposed framework and corresponding score effectively assess the identification of learned representations and their usefulness for causal downstream tasks.

In this work, we study the causal relations among German regions in terms of the spread of Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic, taking into account the restriction policies that were applied by the different federal states. We loose a strictly formulated assumption for a causal feature selection method for time series data, robust to latent confounders, which we subsequently apply on Covid-19 case numbers.

As autonomous systems rapidly become ubiquitous, there is a growing need for a legal and regulatory framework toaddress when and how such a system harms someone. There have been several attempts within the philosophy literature to define harm, but none of them has proven capable of dealing with with the many examples that have been presented, leading some to suggest that the notion of harm should be abandoned and ``replaced by more well-behaved notions''. As harm is generally something that is caused, most of these definitions have involved causality at some level. Yet surprisingly, none of them makes use of causal models and the definitions of actual causality that they can express. In this paper we formally define a qualitative notion of harm that uses causal models and is based on a well-known definition of actual causality (Halpern, 2016). The key novelty of our definition is that it is based on contrastive causation and uses a default utility to which the utility of actual outcomes is compared. We show that our definition is able to handle the examples from the literature, and illustrate its importance for reasoning about situations involving autonomous systems.

Human-factor analysis typically employs correlation analysis and significance testing to identify relationships between variables. However, these descriptive ('what-is') methods, while effective for identifying associations, are often insufficient for answering causal ('what-if') questions. Their application in such contexts often overlooks confounding and colliding variables, potentially leading to bias and suboptimal or incorrect decisions. We advocate for explicitly distinguishing descriptive from interventional questions in human-factor analysis, and applying causal inference frameworks specifically to these problems to prevent methodological mismatches. This approach disentangles complex variable relationships and enables counterfactual reasoning. Using post-occupancy evaluation (POE) data from the Center for the Built Environment's (CBE) Occupant Survey as a demonstration case, we show how causal discovery reveals intervention hierarchies and directional relationships that traditional associational analysis misses. The systematic distinction between causally associated and independent variables, combined with intervention prioritization capabilities, offers broad applicability to complex human-centric systems, for example, in building science or ergonomics, where understanding intervention effects is critical for optimization and decision-making.

Large Vision-Language Models (L VLMs) often suffer from object hallucination, making erroneous judgments about the presence of objects in images. We propose this primarily stems from spurious correlations arising when models strongly associate highly co-occurring objects during training, leading to hallucinated objects influenced by visual context. Current benchmarks mainly focus on hallucination detection but lack a formal characterization and quantitative evaluation of spurious correlations in L VLMs. To address this, we introduce causal analysis into the object recognition scenario of L VLMs, establishing a Structural Causal Model (SCM). Utilizing the language of causality, we formally define spurious correlations arising from co-occurrence bias. To quantify the influence induced by these spurious correlations, we develop Causal-HalBench, a benchmark specifically constructed with counterfactual samples and integrated with comprehensive causal metrics designed to assess model robustness against spurious correlations. Concurrently, we propose an extensible pipeline for the construction of these counterfactual samples, leveraging the capabilities of proprietary L VLMs and Text-to-Image (T2I) models for their generation. Our evaluations on mainstream L VLMs using Causal-HalBench demonstrate these models exhibit susceptibility to spurious correlations, albeit to varying extents.

Large Language Models (LLMs) offer a flexible means to generate synthetic tabular data, yet existing approaches often fail to preserve key causal parameters such as the average treatment effect (ATE). In this technical exploration, we first demonstrate that state-of-the-art synthetic data generators, both GAN- and LLM-based, can achieve high predictive fidelity while substantially misestimating causal effects. To address this gap, we propose a hybrid generation framework that combines model-based covariate synthesis (monitored via distance-to-closest-record filtering) with separately learned propensity and outcome models, thereby ensuring that (W, A, Y) triplets retain their underlying causal structure. We further introduce a synthetic pairing strategy to mitigate positivity violations and a realistic evaluation protocol that leverages unlimited synthetic samples to benchmark traditional estimators (IPTW, AIPW, substitution) under complex covariate distributions. This work lays the groundwork for LLM-powered data pipelines that support robust causal analysis. Our code is available at https://github.com/Xyc-arch/llm-synthetic-for-causal-inference.git.